ACS Alchemist has the power to be of immense value to police commanders in precincts and districts, city planners, as well as locally to Commissioner Ramsey and team, says Ratcliffe. "Crime is not the best predictor of crime. Where crime was last year will not be where crime is this year." Rather, one must look at where crime was last year with the additional information of demographic changes.
"Normally, there's a census every ten years. In the intervening years, we have no idea what changes are taking place in the population," says Ratcliffe, a former East London police officer turned internationally known researcher. New immigrant groups or a surge in a particular age range can play a major role in crime analysis. Ratcliffe says that there are changes at the Census Bureau which will lead to a rolling collection process and yearly updates, which is a huge leap forward in terms of understanding demographic changes, poverty, unemployment and travel patterns. While the evolution of data collection is a great leap forward, tens of thousands of data points are stored online in a confusing and complex manner. Some researchers just give up, says Ratcliffe, who never meant to become an academic, but a mountaineering accident in his 20s retired him from active duty on the force.
"I've been working closely with the
Philadelphia Police Department for nearly 10 years," says Ratcliffe, who has some programming background. He became interested in how changing demographics affect the likelihood of crime, but says the project required programming skills beyond his abilities. Enter Robert Cheetham of Azavea, who himself used to work for the Philadelphia Police as a crime analyst. "Azavea makes the indecipherable actually fathomable," says Ratcliffe.
Cheetham, for his part, says he has been working with the police in one capacity or another for a decade, and gives props to the current leadership. "Ramsey is very much interested in data driven policing. It's the center of what he did in DC, and he brought that set of ideas with him."
Previously, Ratcliffe worked with the Philly PD to create
The Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment, during which violent crime was reduced by 23% by when teams of officers walked the beat past the city's most crime ridden corners. Incidentally, Ratcliffe says the number one reason for crime is not poverty, lack of education, drugs or poor upbringing. Rather, it's opportunity.
Source: Jerry Ratcliffe, Temple University, Robert Cheetham, Azavea
Writer: Sue Spolan